Daniel Mwangi: "Dear Caroline Yoachim: Bypassing Confirmation Bias Using Speculative Fiction"

Dear Caroline Yoachim: Bypassing Confirmation Bias Using Speculative Fiction

by Daniel Mwangi

As someone who wants to pursue a career in scientific research and has had to write read and write scientific papers, confirmation bias is an issue that I have experienced and will continue to experience. We live in a time when science plays an extremely important role in our lives and new discoveries are being made all the time. However these new discoveries are dangerous because we have placed on science on such a high pedestal that if misconstrued it can have terrible effects. This is why experiments which enable confirmation bias, especially those which allow for the use of Occam’s razor, can be such a detriment.  While scientists have to be careful to avoid enabling confirmation bias, authors of speculative fiction have the ability to present information that counteracts confirmation bias. This ability to slim the chances of the bias and possibly present information to go against the bias can proved to be highly effective for issues such as religion and politics.

Speculative Fiction (SF) sits in unique position because it can address topics such as religion in ways that inform the reader but sidestep the confirmation bias they are used to while reading important religious texts. For example many Christian read the Bible as saying that homosexuality is forbidden by God and use it as a reason to oppose the act. However, many of those that like pointing out passages such as Genesis 19 and Leviticus 18 and 20 as evidence that God does not approve of these behaviors. However these people often ignore any evidence that suggests that the Bible is not condemning homosexuality, or refuse to accept that some of the rules set forth in the Bible aren’t applicable today. Where SF can be useful in this situation is that can put the reader in an unfamiliar situation that allows them to reconsider their previous beliefs, and while it might not be able to totally convince a Christian to reverse their feeling on homosexuality, it could slightly change their mind.  If set in an alternate world where people are being discriminated against based on something that we all see as common like bleeding, thus increasing the chances of readers relating to this oppressed group, the author could take this story and use it to show that while those that discriminate can have their beliefs, they do not have to let that affect how they treat the people in question. This might lead someone who was previously against something like gay marriage to realize that while they may believe God is against gay marriage, they do not have to discriminate against gay people but should treat them as they do others and let God be the judge of their choices.

Although I gave a very specific example of how Speculative Fiction can tackle the issue of confirmation bias, the reality is that an author’s efforts do not have to be so heavy handed on obvious. In fact if an author is able to write with a deft hand and take a more subtle approach in how they try to combat ideas often subject to confirmation bias they are more likely to be successful. While the examples I chose might represent some of my personal beliefs it is important to realize that SF stories can take these examples either way. What lesson whether for or against that SF authors choose to write about is up to them, however no matter the issue they are handling it is vital to still address the arguments that the opposition presents. This is the only way that SF can successfully take on confirmation bias.